Which stage of the Demographic Transition Model is associated with a potential population decline?

• A. Stage 1
• B. Stage 2
• C. Stage 3
• D. Stage 5

Answer: (D)

Understanding how fertility and mortality evolve over time explains why some stages can lead to a shrinking population. In Stage 5, birth rates fall below death rates, so natural increase becomes negative. This tends to happen in highly developed societies where factors like higher education, women's workforce participation, urbanization, and access to contraception reduce desired family size. With more people living longer and fewer babies being born, the population can decline unless immigration offsets the loss. This differs from Stage 4, where births are low but roughly balance deaths, resulting in near-zero growth rather than decline. Therefore, Stage 5 is the stage associated with potential population decline.